In Case You Haven't Been Keeping Up With Current Events

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where I want to be, originally uploaded by sogrady.

Pap blew a save and we won, Oki imploded and we didn’t, and I single-handedly led us to victory on Wednesday. While I’m still mildly concerned about Beckett’s refusal to be Beckett, the starters performed well this week. The bullpen? Not so much, and of course the offense on the road has once again been tough to come by.

I’d have a scouter for you, but our seats to Wednesday’s Colon vs Olson start were in the bleachers, several hundred feet away and my eyesight’s good only for about ten feet. I can report, however, that John Henry and co dropped in new seats out there. Which was nice.

I’ll get to see some of the closer seats firsthand, fortunately, next Sunday as my brother and I will be at Fenway to celebrate his 30th. The weekly update may be late, but it’ll have that authentic, first hand feel. Kick ass.

Draft

The good news? We signed nine of our picks. The bad news? These were 12th round picks or later, and none of the tough signs.

But still, good to see, and I look forward to seeing how these kids perform at Lowell, the GCL and so on.

Drew

Ortiz was injured on May 31st, placed on the DL on the 3rd. His line at that the time he went down was .252/.354/.486, which is credible but decidedly un-Ortiz-like. Potentially replaceable, in fact.

But the statistics, in this case, lied. They obscured the fact that after the worst month he’s had in a Red Sox uniform, Papi went back to being Papi in May. And then some. So while his season line might be made up through roster manipulations, his more typical May numbers (.318/.409/.617) clearly could not be.

And sure enough, we’re on a 144 run pace for the month, off our 154 run May.

While some credit for the fact that we haven’t fallen off the table is due the pitching staff, which since Papi’s been out is pitching at a 3.41 clip over May’s 3.66, much should go to the Pariah of Philly, one JD Drew.

Despite my inherent bias against the player that took Nixon’s roster spot and then his number, the fact is that Drew has been straight lighting it up since our DH was felled. And while we certainly can’t expect him to keep up the .444/.544/1.067 (seriously, a 1.611 OPS) numbers he’s put up to date in June, every little bit he can do helps.

Particularly with a 1.026 OPS on the shelf. So cheers, JD.

Duncan

Perhaps you remember when one a certain Boston beat reporter said the following:

“I know Jason Giambi makes $21 million this year, but I’d play Shelley Duncan at first. What energy.”

And I questioned it. How’d that one turn out, you ask?

Giambi’s putting up a .259/.394/.562 line, while the Red Sox covering scribe’s chosen first baseman was just DFA‘d – for the second time – after hitting a buck seventy-five.

I won’t say it. But I’m definitely thinking it.

Okajima

I can’t speak for you, but personally, I had no expectation that Okajima would be what he was last year. He was too good, and the second time around’s always a bitch.

Just ask the little second baseman on our roster.

I’ve argued previously that many of his well publicized inherited runner failures were at least partially the product of some impossible spots: bases loaded, no one out, and so forth. Which was true, I think.

But these days, he can’t get through even a clean inning, as demonstrated by Francona’s 1 out quick hook during last night’s game against the Reds. In 4 June games, Oki’s given up 7 hits and 3 walks in 3 IP, allowed a .467 BAA, all of which have lead to 7 earned. Not good.

Nor is there any simple explanation; the splits don’t tell us much. He’s not getting especially tagged by hitters on one side of the plate – .618 OPS to lefties, .623 to right. Home vs road doesn’t make that much of a difference – 3.09 at Fenway to 2.76 away.

The one interesting tidbit? He’s only given up earned runs (which obscures the inherited runners problem, I realize) to two teams all season. The Angels, who’ve gotten to him for a run in 2.2 IP. And then there are the O’s who are beating him like a drum. 8 earned in 5.1 IP, off 9 hits and 3 walks.

So short of any other reasonable suggestions for turning him around, I’d start with this one: don’t throw Oki against the O’s.

Sabathia

Am I the only one that think that rumors of a potential swap for Sabathia are the inevitable media speculation that follows the appearance of Indians’ scouts at Sox contests? Rather than, you know, anything with actual substance? While our starting pitching is hardly the second coming of Smoltz, Maddux and Glavine, it’s hardly the problem.

The sizable lefty has settled down, certainly, after a rough start that saw him surrender 9 earned in consecutive starts for what has to be the first time in his career, posting a 2.44 ERA in May and a 2.40 through two June starts.

But he’s a free agent at the end of the year, and he doesn’t address our most pressing problem – the bullpen. Unless they get very creative and bump one of the current starters into the pen. Which, I’d contend, based on their reluctance to do so with Buchholz, is unlikely.

So why give up anything of consequence to secure him? Last year, of course, we went out and strengthened an area – the bullpen – that didn’t particularly need it. But that was done as a hedge against injuries and fatigue; circumstances that did come to pass, even if the hedge blew up in our faces in the person of Gagne. But this year, starting pitching candidates are not in short supply. In Beckett, Matsuzaka, Lester, Wakefield, Colon, Buchholz, Schilling, and Masterson we’ve got seven more or less viable candidates for innings.

Sabathia, to me, seems like a luxury. One that we can ill afford during these economically tight times.

In Case You Haven't Been Keeping Up With Current Events

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Lester in the Pen, originally uploaded by Eric Kilby.

Running late, as usual. Blame the Red Sox this time. What would you have me do: watch the Sox/Yankees or crank out the ICYHBKUWCE that I owe you?

Exactly.

In the meantime, I’m not going to say anything about our play of late so as not to jinx us. But given that there’s another tilt with the empire coming in a littler over an hour, I’m going to keep this short and sweet. This week’s edition of In Case You Haven’t Been Keeping Up With Current Events is player focused.

Enjoy, or at least read it.

Cash

Heard anyone complaining about his defense, and/or the impact it’s having on Timmeh? Me neither. The Sox should, of course, be actively on the market for catching because one injury to Tek and we’re in serious trouble (Brown and Kottaras’ success notwithstanding – more on that in a follow up). We could, in fact, find ourselves in a similar position to the Empire.

Colon

It’s not exactly throwing heat, but Colon – sidelined by an oblique injury – is at least back to playing catch.

Cora

Cora, on the other hand, was DL’d with Thurston replacing him. If Lowell wasn’t already out, I’d be less concerned about this, as it would offer Lowrie an opportunity to get his feet wet in an uber-utility role.

Delcarmen

Yes, his inconsistency is driving me crazy too. This past weekend, he gets couple of big outs against the Yankees. Last night? 2 free passes in an inning, and one hit by pitch scoring the at-the-time tying run.

How a pitcher with his stuff gets into so many 3 ball counts is beyond me, but until his command is better he won’t be the relief ace that we want him to be. Anyone else think it was interesting to see him replaced by Aardsma last night – particularly given their similarity?

Lester

Frustrating as MDC might be, however, it’s nothing compared to Lester. As Zach Hayes over at Fire Brand summarizes:

So far this season, Lester has thrown one outstanding start against weak hitting Oakland, one below average start against Detroit and two bad starts in Japan vs. the A’s and Monday at Cleveland. Lester isn’t being consistently pounded for home runs and hits (just two big ones- Emil Brown and Marcus Thames), but he’s constantly falling behind in the count, throwing all over the zone and putting too many free runners on base.

Remember when I asked whether his Oakland start was an adjustment or mere statistical variation? Well, we may not know the answer yet, but the initial data isn’t promising. It’s so unpromising, in fact, that Hayes asks whether or not it might be Lester rather than Buchholz that’s sent down when/if Colon arrives.

My own take is that Buchholz will be headed back down, unless Lester completely and utterly melts down, for the simple reason of innings. Buchholz’ professional innings totals? 22.2 IP Majors, 285.2 Minors. Lester? 144.1 IP Majors, 483.2 minors.

Lester’s far better positioned than Buchholz to handle a full season’s workload at this point, cancer or no cancer.

Lowell

Not much to relate here: the swelling’s down, but there’s been no further progress.

Lowrie

Congrats to the rookie for his first appearance, first major league hit, and first major league three RBI game. Particularly since the latter proved the difference in the ballgame. Oh, if you see him, wish him a happy birthday tomorrow.

Papi

I can’t say – apart from the hits collected – that I’ve seen much to convince me Papi’s back. But I have to say that the comment that Evan over at Fire Brand collected from Pizza Cutter was enlightening:

In general, Ortiz hits a lot of foul balls (including two strike fouls!) although he’s a power hitter and power hitters are generally high risk/high reward swingers, hence a lot of K’s and a lot of HR’s. Part of the reason that he’s so good is that his swing allows him to recover from a big swing midway and at least poke a ball foul to stay alive.

David Ortiz’s “slump” is nothing more than a run of bad luck. BABIP is generally within control of the hitter and Ortiz, a lifetime .310 BABIP hitter is hitting .114 this year…As much as I’d love it if he would politely hit like this for the next few months (or at least until the Red Sox get out of Cleveland tonight), I wouldn’t bet on that happening unless there’s some sort of (major) injury that we don’t know about. Patience is a virtue. Y’all waited 86 years. Ortiz will be fine.

Worth thinking about; I should have looked up his BABIP data myself.

Tek

Speaking of slumps, remember when everyone wrote him off after Japan/LA? I do.

Turn that Frown Upside Down, Papi

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Sobby Big Papi, originally uploaded by frigante.

Ok, I’m worried.

For the entirety of this young season, I’ve been cramming friends and family alike full of meaningless, reassuring pablum. Ortiz was fine, really. Too good of a hitter for this to last. Even the great ones go through it. And so on.

Rinse, lather, repeat.

Which of course I still believe. But I’ve progressed from stage 1 concern to stage 2 worry.

Not because of the slump. Great hitters do indeed go through similar slumps. Because of what it might be causing the slump. Just like Chad. It was only within the past few days thay I heard the word “limping.” When that applies to my own poor cracked and split feet, that’s an unfortunate word. When it’s used in conjunction with David Ortiz’ surgically repaired knee, well, it’s frankly terrifying.

Worse, the always unimpressive Buck/McCarver tandem related a troubling anecdote during Saturday’s telecast concerning Ortiz’ mental state. Apparently Tito had to pull Ortiz aside to tell the Smiling One that his lack of smiles was affecting the rest of the clubhouse. When was the last time anyone had to tell Ortiz to smile? Let alone to take a night off?

To be sure, I don’t believe, I know that Papi will come out of this. Probably soon.

But I am worried about the aftereffects of what I believed to be a fairly routine procedure on his knee. Not least because players of his type don’t tend to age well.

We need Papi to be Papi. And I’m sure that he will. But I am now on Alert Level Orange. Or is that Red?

Quick Links: Drunk Ortiz, Hansen Thoughts, Jeter Leader?

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the_scene, originally uploaded by sogrady.

Good news, everyone! I survived a weekend spent in an 8×6 shack on a frozen lake in sub-zero Minnesota temperatures with three other dudes. More or less in one piece.

Honestly, though, if there’s anything better than ice fishing for getting me ready for baseball, I’m not sure what it would be.

Age Surprises

Peter Gammons: Every so often I’m surprised by age comparisons. Sometimes I’m more impressed with a player because they’re younger than I believed, others I’m less impressed because they’re older. Either way, it’s always interesting.

Gammons mentioned one today:

Remember that Jon Garland is six months younger than Bedard and has 52 more career wins.

In the immortal words of Carsenio, “I did not know that.” But the one that really put things in perspective for me?

Clay Buchholz will be 23 to start the season, while Seattle’s Felix Hernandez – you remember the one hitter last year, don’t you? – will be 21.

In the only slightly less immortal words of Stephen Colbert, “Think about that. I haven’t.”

Battle Royale in Bullpen

Amalie Benjamin: According to everyone’s favorite Amalie, the Sox will open with 12 pitchers on the roster rather than 11. With Papelbon, Okajima, Delcarmen, Timlin, and Tavarez all but guaranteed of spots if they’re healthy – whether it’s for contract reasons, talent, or ideally both – that leaves two spots up to the likes of Aardsma, Hansen, Lopez, Snyder, and the non-roster invitees in Michael Bowden, Lee Gronkiewicz, Hunter Jones, Dan Kolb, Justin Masterson, Jon Switzer and Michael Tejera. Unless – and maybe even if – Bowden and Masterson allow no hits and no walks for all of spring training, they’re ticketed for the minors. Jones too. The rest of the folks on that list are real long shots.

Cashman Watch, Continued

Bill Madden: First we have this bit from Madden:

At the time [of Pettite’s return], there was elation all around, especially from Cashman, who used Pettitte’s “I shall return” proclamation as the incentive for walking away from a deal for the Twins’ Johan Santana – a deal he never wanted to make. With Pettitte taking up $16 million in payroll, the Yankees could no longer afford Santana, Cashman argued, and Hal Steinbrenner, Hank’s partner and the primary financial expert in the business, agreed.

“Take your choice, guys,” Hal reportedly told the group of Yankee higher-ups in a meeting on the Santana deal prior to Cashman’s departure for the winter meetings. “Pettitte or Santana?”

And then we have this bit from the great Gammons:

But if all the spotlight causes the respectful, quiet Pettitte to go into a shell and turn into a 35-year-old .500 pitcher, his grab for the $16 million that steered the Yankees away from Johan Santana may cost a few jobs. Which will not be fair.

Anyone care to give me odds that Cashman is one of those jobs?

Hansen, Hansen, Hansen – So Hot Right Now?

Speaking of Hansen, he’s received a lot of attention in the Globe. Granted, some of the coverage was for the novelty of the surgery he had to correct sleep apnea; in his own words, he used to snore like a 500 pound fat man. But he’s also being discussed almost daily by the beat writers as a legitimate candidate for one of the last spots in the pen.

Certainly, if he can throw strikes with a slider resembling the one he threw at St John’s, I’d bet on him for a spot. The kid throws hard, after all. Unfortunately, I’d put the odds of that precondition being met as long indeed. Keith Law is, if anything, even more convinced of this than I am. In fact, he’s gone as far as arguing that Daniel Bard is a better bet than Hansen, saying:

I saw Hansen again in the Fall League … it’s not there, at least not yet. I’d be more inclined to put money on Bard taking a step forward in ’08 than Hansen.

Given that Bard’s walked nearly 2 guys for every one he’s struck out as a pro (78BB/47K), and better than 1/IP (78BB/75IP), well, that can’t really be taken as a positive report on Hansen.

Good Times, Good Times

Steve Buckley: I don’t think this qualifies as throwing your teammate under the bus simply because it’s high comedy, but, well, you make the call:

“Last year after we won it,” [Papelbon] said yesterday, “I was in a hotel room partying, and Ortiz was there trying to show me how to do the breakdance. And he fell over, and he didn’t know what he was doing. Either that or he was just too drunk. I don’t know.”

The good folks over at Surviving Grady are absolutely right: Papelbon must be miced 24/7/365. That would be the first and only reality show I’d ever watch. Unless someone sticks a camera on Marissa Miller (sorry, Amalie).

Rest as a Trend

Rob Bradford: It’s clear from Rob’s latest and some of the other commentary leading up to and follow last year’s playoffs that enforced rest may become a prescribed part of the Red Sox pitching management strategy. As an aside, I was a bit surprised – and pleased – to see Beckett recognize the benefits of the approach, given that it is at odds with the Herschiser like ideal that starting pitchers are a horse to be ridden until they die.

What I’m curious about now is whether or not this strategy of enforced rest will be emulated more broadly within the league. Certain factors – the lack of starting pitching to support the approach, the lack of intelligence within some front offices, or incompatible pitching management philosophies – are likely to limit the spread of the tactic. But baseball front offices are smarter and more creative than they were even a few years ago, and even the conservative clubs are willing to try and emulate what’s been successful for Word Series winners.

Taking One for the Team?

John Mazor: Fortunately, I don’t need to take apart this crime against sports journalism, because the pros at Fire Joe Morgan have already done that for you. Nor do I have to explain why Jeter is not a pre-eminent or even average shortstop, because the Penn researchers Mazor is trying to slag have explained that in sufficient detail for all but the most ardent homers.

For an article that bases much of its argument on the fact that Jeter has won three Gold Gloves – in spite of the fact that that award means nothing (disagree? then explain how Palmeiro won it for 1B in ’99 while playing only 28 games at the position) – I find it surprising that Mazor fails to mention that the two Gold Gloves that Rodriguez wore came in his last two years as a shortstop. The years, put differently, before he moved to third base to accommodate the statistically and observably inferior shortstop. As one of the researchers put it, “The Yankees have one of the best defensive shortstops playing out of position in deference to one of the worst defensive shortstops.”

Is Jeter an excellent player? Indeed. But is he the leader, and the Cap’n Intangibles, that Yankee fans believe him to be? I’m not sure how you make that argument. To me, a real leader would have done what was best for the team: let the best shortstop man that position.

But frankly, as I used to tell my Yankee friends, I’m just as happy that that didn’t work out. Can you imagine a world in which the Pinstriped ones could throw A-Rod and Jeter at short and second, then find power bats for the corners? It’s too terrifying to even contemplate.