Comments on: The Cost of and Need for Adrian Gonzalez

By: Untouchable Ellsbury? – wicked clevah

Untouchable Ellsbury? – wicked clevah — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 13:50:32 +0000

[...] Finn and I might not agree on much with respect to a potential trade for Adrian Gonzalez, but we at least see eye to eye on this much: [...]

By: Real Sox Fan

Real Sox Fan — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 12:29:00 +0000

Sog,
If you look at Ells first two complete years his OBP and Avg. have both gone up 30 points. With a little more work his OBP will be right where you would want a star lead-off hitter. Next the guy who wrote this article is talking about power. Ells hit 8 HRs this past season which is not great by any means but for a lead-off hitter, is just fine. My question is does anyone actually know how many more runs his speed has made the Sox last season? A guy that can turn a single into a double is priceless. No one seemed to complain about Damon when we first got him and he didn’t hit a ton of Homeruns.
And as for AGON, sure he is a great hitter, but if you don’t have anyone on base in front of him those 40 HRs he hit last year only earned him 40 RBIs. Take last season for instance, With those 40 HRs he only hit in 99 RBIs. That is not many RBIs per Homerun. The reason being is no one was getting on base before him and when they were on base they were not fast enough to get in scoring position so that he could drive them in.
If we get rid of Ells, who is going to lead-off?? Mike Cameron?? That would be nice with 250 batting average and bad wheels. How about JD Drew? With a hefty 275 batting average and great wheels with 2 stolen bases this past season.
Now you talk about Holliday being old, he is only 4 years older than Lackey, and has been very durable and reliable during his career. I do understand that all we had to do was give up money for Lackey and not Prospects, but now we are turning around and thinking about throwing prospects at AGON. Not only that but, why is everyone ignoring the 5.75 era that Lackey has in Fenway??? Did everyone forget byung hyun kim? Everyone was all excited when we picked him up knowing that he couldn’t pitch against the Yankees. But everyone just said “oh he will be fine.” How did that turn out? Now we are giving a crap load of money to Lackey and we don’t even know how he is going to pitch in a park that he is notorious for struggling in.
I just think we would have received more from a Doc and Matt Halladay deal then a Lackey and AGON deal.
This comment was originally posted on wicked clevah

By: Real Sox Fan

Real Sox Fan — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 12:29:00 +0000

By: sog

sog — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 11:26:23 +0000

@Real Sox Fan: where to start… 1. It is likely, at the age of 26, that Ells is going to get better. That’s not the question. The question is by how much, and will he be a star. Based on all of the available evidence, the answer is: no, he will not be a star. Therefore he should not be untouchable. 2. Holliday apparently wants Teixeira money, and he’s not worth anything near that. At which point the Sox should – and reportedly did – walk away. 3. Holliday’s an excellent pitcher. He is, however, 36 and has thrown an exceptionally high number of innings the past few years. Ergo he’s a signing risk. Further, the Jays would have required us to pay a premium to trade him within the division, making it an even riskier deal. Lackey can approximate if not duplicate his numbers at a far more reasonable acquisition cost. This comment was originally posted on wicked clevah

By: sog

sog — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 11:26:23 +0000

By: Real Sox Fan

Real Sox Fan — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 10:46:24 +0000

You guys, are all crazy! If you don’t think Ells is going to get better you are out of your mind. Don’t be surprised if he turns into a regular all-star. Personally I would rather see the Sox spend some cash and get Matt Holiday and keep Ells. I would have liked to see Roy Halladay and Matt Holiday, over John Lackey and AGON any day! It’s funny they didn’t want to push for Doc because the Blue Jays wanted too many prospects, but we will give away one of our best young players for AGON, and Doc would have done more than AGON will do for us. This comment was originally posted on wicked clevah

By: Real Sox Fan

Real Sox Fan — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 10:46:24 +0000

By: sog

sog — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 09:05:46 +0000

@Aaron Pressman: VORP does value SB’s, as far as i know, which likely accounts for Ellsbury’s value in that system.
the question then becomes a) is the ability really that valuable, and b) can that ability be sustained over time.
the answer to the second, of course, is that we don’t know. he stole 20 less in eight fewer games the year before, and it’s obviously dependent on health.
the answer to the former is that it’s an open question. Fangraphs’ WAR (Wins Above Replacement), for example, which is in turn based in part of WOBA (which does value the stolen base),
has Mike Cameron as a 4.3 win player last year against Ellsbury’s 1.9.
who’s right? tough to say.
but let’s assume that VORP is valuing the steals perfectly: it’s still a deal you make because of Gonzalez’ value.
This comment was originally posted on wicked clevah

By: sog

sog — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 09:05:46 +0000

By: Aaron Pressman

Aaron Pressman — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 08:22:42 +0000

I don’t disagree but looking at OPS seems really lacking in the context of his high number of steals and high success rate. I assume VORP does take that into account. This comment was originally posted on wicked clevah