Bullpen Now, Bullpen Later

.flickr-photo { border: solid 2px #000000; }
.flickr-yourcomment { }
.flickr-frame { text-align: left; padding: 3px; }
.flickr-caption { font-size: 0.8em; margin-top: 0px; }



Called Strike, originally uploaded by sogrady.

As of yesterday, our bullpen was the not-so-proud owner of a collective 5.46 ERA. In 28 IP, we’d struck out 26, which is good, but walked 13, which is not so good. Fully half of those 26 K’s belonged to two pitchers: Paps (7), which you probably guessed, and Aardsma (6), which you may not have.

It’s for that reason alone – in spite of their usage in yesterday’s game (Aardsma preceded Corey) – that I suspect that this commenter over on Fire Brand is correct. Corey, in my mind, will be the one to go.

It’s the move I would make, because all things being equal you favor the strikeout pitcher. And things are hardly equal here. While Aardsma’s control has been characteristically poor – 4 BB’s in 4.1 IP – he at least has the strikeouts and a WHIP below 2. Corey has only walked 1 in the same span, but have give up 9 hits to Aardsma’s 2, and 7 runs to Aardsma’s 2.

So – assuming that Lopez is still protected from on high by the powers of darkness (his numbers are worse than either of the other two) – Corey should be the one to go.

The question is whether or not this will represent a real improvement, as Orsillo asserted on tonight’s telecast.

Certainly Timlin can be expected to provide higher quality outings that Corey has in his 6 appearances to date, but neither should we be expecting a great deal from the 42 year old reliever. PECOTA sees him throwing only 45 innings, and putting up a 4.40 ERA in that time (vs 3.80 in ’07).

The bullpen savior, he is not likely to be.

Stabilizer, maybe. His spring numbers show the same old Timlin, just with more contact. He doesn’t walk many – 1 in 8 IP over 7 outings – but he’s pitching more to contact, with 9 bits to go along with that walk.

At the very least, he’ll be an arm we can throw out against the Yankees in the middle innings that will throw strikes, and that’s certainly worth something.

However Timlin pitches, it seems clear that we’re going to need contributions from elsewhere, lest we run Oki into the ground yet again. Even more because of Buchholz and Lester’s innings caps.

But with credible bullpen arms overvalued at the moment, short of a Crisp trade, where might they come from? The minors, in all likelihood.

Given the ‘pen’s performance of late, I’ve been keeping an eye on some of the likely candidates for bullpen innings and the news on that front – unlike with the big club arms – is mostly good.

I was actually visiting Pawtucket’s site just yesterday to check in on Hansen, and apparently Kevin Thomas was thinking along the same lines. With the obvious small sample size caveat, it’s worth noting that in 3 appearances covering 6 IP, Hansen’s K’d 8, walked 3, and allowed 1 hit. It’s 3 games, yes, but it’s the best 3 game stretch he’s had since the tail end of last season.

One level down, Justin Masterson is actually outperforming Hansen, as the BA guys note. In 2 starts and 9 innings, Masterson’s walked none and K’d 10 against 5 hits. In his second outing, Masterson went 5, striking out 7. All of the other outs? Groundballs. Of the 2 hits he allowed, one was a groundball single.

Does this mean, as some are beginning to argue, that we should dump not only Corey but Aardsma too, in favor of the young arms?

No. Barring injury, Hansen and Masterson will remain as options for our bullpen, while once Aardsma, Corey or even Lopez are gone, they’re gone for good as all are out of options. So rather than prematurely divest ourselves of potential assets, it makes more sense to wait and see what, if anything, Aardsma and the rest of the current relief staff can provide us, while gaining additional insight into the performances of the likes of Masterson and Hansen. As well as both of the latter two have pitched, they are both exceedingly young, and we’ve only a handful of games to judge them by.

In a month or two, I might change my tune, but for now I think we try to keep the ship afloat with the pieces we’ve got, while assessing the readiness of potential help down the line.

Update: Rob Bradford confirms that Corey was the roster casualty, DFA’d after the game to make room for Timlin.

About these ads

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s